Search results for "financial crise"
showing 9 items of 9 documents
TESTING FOR CONTAGION: A CONDITIONAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS
2005
Abstract In this paper, we test for contagion within the East Asian region, contagion being defined as a significant increase in the degree of comovement between stock returns in different countries. For this purpose, we use a parameter stability test, and, following [Rigobon, R., 2003a. On the measurement of the international propagation of shocks: is the transmission stable?, Journal of International Economics], we control for three types of bias, resulting from heteroscedasticity, endogeneity and omitted variable, respectively. The null of interdependence against the alternative of contagion is then tested as an overidentifying restriction. Unlike other studies, our approach is based on …
Financial crises in Spain: lessons from the last 150 years
2012
Financial crises are not unique to current financial systems. Are crises alike? Have they become more frequent, longer lasting and more severe since the 20th century? What does history tell us? The objective of this paper is to study the financial crises that have occurred in Spain over the last 150 years. We consider different types of crises (banking, currency and stock market crises), together with all their possible combinations, estimate their frequency by period and measure their length and depth. The main conclusion we obtain is that Spanish crises have been more frequent than in the rest of the world and have been more severe and more complex since 1973, as the 2007 crisis is confir…
Testing for financial contagion between developed and emerging markets during the 1997 East Asian crisis
2005
In this paper we examine whether during the 1997 East Asian crisis there was any contagion from the four largest economies in the region (Thailand, Indonesia, Korea and Malaysia) to a number of developed countries (Japan, UK, Germany and France). Following Forbes and Rigobon, we test for contagion as a significant positive shift in the correlation between asset returns, taking into account heteroscedasticity and endogeneity bias. Furthermore, we improve on earlier empirical studies by carrying out a full sample test of the stability of the system that relies on more plausible (over) identifying restrictions. The estimation results provide some evidence of contagion, in particular from Japan…
Systemic financial crises and the housing market cycle
2017
Using quarterly data for a group of 20 industrialized countries and both continuous- and discrete-time duration models, we show that financial crisis recessions are associated with a two- to three-fold increase in the likelihood of the end of a housing boom. Additionally, recessions preceded by booms in mortgage credit are especially damaging, as their occurrence coincides with an increase in the duration of housing market slumps of almost 90%.
Quantum macroeconomics: A tribute to Bernard Schmitt
2016
Bernard Schmitt, the founder of quantum macroeconomics, died on 26 March 2014. His legacy concerns the discovery of the logical laws of monetary macroeconomics and extends to the explanation of the origin and nature of economic and financial crises. Starting from a novel conception of bank money, he was able to show that economics is founded on true macroeconomic laws, which take the form of logical identities. This paper is a brief and necessarily incomplete introduction to the main themes of Schmitt's macroeconomic analysis. It ranges from the distinction between money and income that lies at the hearth of his theory of the circuit, to the investigation of inflation and unemployment as pa…
An anatomy of financial crises in Norway, 1830-2010
2014
Author's version of an article in the journal: Financial History Review. Also available from the publisher at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0968565013000279 On the basis of a novel dataset, the article investigates the anatomy of financial crises in Norway from 1830 to 2010. First, nine significant crises are identified. Second, the article examines spillover effects on the real economy. We find a clear but not symmetric relationship. Third, the article investigates key patterns in credit and money volumes. Major financial crises typically occurred after substantial money and credit expansion, causing financial instability.
The role of the economic crisis on the competitiveness of the agri-food sector in the main Mediterranean countries
2014
Th e world economic crisis that, since 2008 has also struck the real economy, cannot be attributed only to the United States bubble which in 2007 involved the mortgage credit market, but it is the result of a series of factors among which the imbalance of the fi nancial market, of the public accounts of the main economies and the real sector. Also agricul- ture, which has always been considered an anti-cyclic sector, has seen a strong slowdown with a plunge in the trade fl ows. Th is paper analyses the changes which happened to the competitive position in the world market of some Mediterranean countries and of France, Italy, Spain and Turkey in particular trying, moreover, to understand the…
Labor Market Flexibility and Unemployment: New Empirical Evidence of Static and Dynamic Effects
2012
The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between labor market flexibility and unemployment outcomes. Using a panel of 97 countries from 1985 to 2008, the results of the paper suggest that improvements in labor market flexibility have a statistically and significant negative impact on unemployment outcomes (over unemployment, youth unemployment, and long-term unemployment). Among the different labor market flexibility indicators analyzed, hiring and firing regulations and hiring costs are found to have the strongest effect.
CAPITAL FLOW BONANZAS AS A FUNDAMENTAL INGREDIENT IN SPAIN'S FINANCIAL CRISES, 1850-2015
2020
El trabajo analiza los mecanismos a través de los cuales los flujos de capital produjeron inestabilidad financiera en España durante un período de 165 años. Se estudia por qué y cómo las bonanzas de capital hacen que las crisis sean más probables y severas, y si su incidencia varía en función de los tipos de crisis (crisis cambiaria, bancaria y de deuda). Concluimos que la mayoría de ellas se produjeron en diferentes regímenes de política monetaria pero que se asociaron a bonanzas de capital en un marco regulatorio liberal, lo que contribuyó a una mayor probabilidad y a una mayor gravedad de las crisis. El análisis de los diferentes regímenes de política monetaria, las estructuras financier…